VP Thoughts: Republicans

The blogosphere has been abuzz of late with the news that both Barack Obama and John McCain are beginning the lengthy process of picking vice-presidential candidates. Both Obama and McCain are playing their cards close to the chest and are allowing very little information about their respective processes to leak out, leading to some wild speculation about both shortlists. Bloggers, pundits and journalists are having a blast making their own lists, from the logical (Charlie Crist) to the unlikely (Kathleen Sebelius) to the clinically insane (Jim Webb).

So, with that in mind, I thought I would join the party and make my own short list for both sides, beginning with the Republicans today and the Democrats tomorrow.

Names I've Seen In No Particular Order: Gov. Charlie Crist (FL), Gov. Bobby Jindal (LA), former Gov. Mitt Romney (MA), former Gov. Mike Huckabee (AR), former Gov. Jeb Bush (FL), Gov. Mark Sanford (SC), Gov. Haley Barbour (MS), Gov. Tim Pawlenty (MN), Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT), Sen. Norm Coleman (MN), Sen. Lindsay Graham (SC), Sen. Chuck Hagel (NE), Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (TX), Sen. John Thune (SD), former Rep. Rob Portman (OH), Sec. Condoleezza Rice (CA), Sec. Tom Ridge (PA), and Mayor Michael Bloomberg (I-NY).

That is quite a list of luminaries. A bit of a ruckus emerged this week when the New York Times reported that McCain would be meeting with three such possible candidates this weekend at his home in Arizona: Crist, Jindal and Romney. Time magazine later clarified that Lieberman and Graham will also be in attendance, while Pawlenty and Huckabee were both invited but could not attend due to other obligations (Pawlenty has a wedding, the Huckster will be on a cruise with his wife). I do not put much stock in the idea that McCain will be using this opportunity to size up VP candidates, since the gathering seems to be more of a thank-you get-together for high-profile supporters.

That said, the parameters for a possible McCain pick seem to be pretty clear: McCain needs somebody younger (although it's going to be hard to find anybody older than John McCain), somebody who's prepared to be president, somebody who can appeal to conservatives or at least shore up support among the right wing of the party (and if they're not, they had better be able to carry a crucial swing demographic group in the middle to make up for that), somebody who knows economic policy (since McCain openly admits he knows nothing of it) and preferably somebody who can carry a swing state.

With that in mind, the candidates who best meet those qualifications are Mark Sanford, Charlie Crist, Tim Pawlenty, and Rob Portman. Sanford is a darling of the fiscal wing of the Republican Party (read: I love him) who will definitely help shore up support in the South. Charlie Crist has only been in office for a couple of years; probably won't do anything to help carry the South beyond Florida (which McCain will win anyway); and there's a few, um, rumors about him that will probably prevent him from being chosen. Pawlenty has the same benefits as Sanford but can help carry Minnesota, a state that is otherwise turning blue. Portman is perfect for economic policy, youth, and general political acumen, but he carries with him the added baggage of being a Bush administration cabinet official. He's also not terribly well known nationwide, and probably will do nothing to help carry Ohio in the fall.

My best guess is that the pick will end up being Sanford or Pawlenty for the reasons I described above.

Why I Rejected Some Other Possible Candidates:

Bobby Jindal - I love Bobby Jindal. I've donated to three candidates for political office in my life, and Jindal was one of them (for his first gubernatorial campaign in 2003). He's incredibly bright and is a talented politician. The downside to Jindal is that he's young (only 36) and has been in office for less than a year at this point. Jindal is the future of the party, and will be on a national ticket at some point - just not this year (although Sanford-Jindal 2016 or Pawlenty-Jindal 2016 sounds pretty damn good to me).

Mitt Romney - Romney's best asset is his business acumen and general economic knowledge. McCain could easily use Romney as a kind of economic pinch-hitter, deferring all questions on economic and fiscal policy to Romney while focusing exclusively on foreign policy and national defense. Unfortunately, Romney is still not trusted by the right wing (due to his flip-flopping on abortion and other issues), can't carry his home state (Massachusetts is blue and staying blue, Michigan probably the same), and doesn't seem to get along with McCain all that well. He's a possible pick for Treasury Secretary, but I can't see him getting the VP nod.

Condi Rice - Again, as with Jindal, I absolutely love Condi Rice. There's simply no way that one of the most inner members of George W. Bush's inner circle is getting on the ticket, though. All the Dems would have to do is repeat the story about Condi shoe-shopping in New York during Hurricane Katrina over and over again, which would completely undo any advantage Rice brings. Plus, her primary area of expertise (national security) is one that McCain needs no help in. Rice is intriguing, but unlikely.

Michael Bloomberg - New York Magazine published an article this week pitching Bloomberg as a possible veep nominee for both McCain and Obama. I simply can't see this happening. It's too much of a stretch.

I'm not even going to bother covering why I rejected Huckabee, Graham, and the others, but most of those candidates have the same flaws as the four I wrote about. Each fails to meet at least one piece of the criteria I've listed above.

The Pick: Pawlenty. I love Mark Sanford, and I think he's the best possible choice for McCain. Most of the buzz seems to be going to Pawlenty, though, and I think the appeal of bringing Minnesota back into the Republican column when the South will likely stay Republican anyway will be overpowering.